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Since July, the Nicaraguan regime has walked back Daniel Ortega’s announcement that “there will be no more elections.” But a constitutional amendment cut off the path to free elections more aggressively than in 2021, when seven opposition candidates were arrested.
In September, the Sandinista-controlled Assembly extended the presidential term from six to seven years and pushed back the general elections to 2028.
They also barred opposition members “linked to coup attempts, foreign funding, international sanctions, or acts against sovereignty” from running for office.It was on similar accusations that Nicaragua pushed its political opposition into prison or exile. Since 2018, the regime has expelled hundreds of dissidents, stripping them of citizenship, property, and political rights, according to U.N. investigators.
Unlike 2021, when the two main opposition coalitions tried —and failed— to reach an electoral alliance from inside Nicaragua, the opposition is now in exile.
In a country where waving the flag without permission can constitute a crime, the new reforms stop short of prohibiting voting for unauthorized candidates.
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Juan Carlos Gutiérrez, an exiled Nicaraguan political analyst who was stripped of his citizenship in 2023, said the changes further institutionalize the dictatorship.
The regime, in the event of a state crisis, wants to “operate under its own rules” and “within a manipulated discourse of sovereignty,” he told El Faro English.
Importantly, the new reform extends terms to seven years for the heads of the Armed Forces and National Police, an area where co-president Rosario Murillo has faced questions over whether she can maintain control should Ortega, who is 81, die.
The new term length also applies to the Assembly, mayors, and all officials appointed by the Presidency or the legislature.
This is the second constitutional rewrite in less than two years. The 2025 amendments installed Murillo as co-president and axed the separation of powers.
Ortega has changed the constitution over ten times, approving indefinite presidential reelection and adopting the ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) flag as a state symbol.
For many, the repression during the 2021 election cycle was a point of no return. Juan Sebastián Chamorro, one of the candidates accused of “betraying the homeland,” told El Faro English that Ortega’s most recent election saber-rattling merely exposed a long-running reality.
“He didn’t kill the elections; the elections were already dead,” said Chamorro. “The moment opposition participation is not allowed, there are no elections.”
Washington’s agenda
In the last two years, Nicaragua has withdrawn from the Organization of American States (OAS), U.N. Human Rights Council, International Labour Organization, and other multilaterals, calling it quits after reports that the government does not like.
Despite ongoing treaty obligations, the new constitutional reforms —set to be ratified in January 2027— established that no “foreign law” will have jurisdiction in Nicaragua.
“Naming and shaming no longer works,” Dora María Téllez, an exiled former leader of the Sandinista Renovation Movement, told El Faro English. “The consequences that could get Ortega and Murillo’s attention are economic and familial.”
In Washington, Nicaragua has been tacked onto Venezuela-Cuba rhetoric but hardly stands out.
On the heels of the new reforms, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the United States “urges international partners to immediately stop business-as-usual operations with this brutal dictatorship.”
Between Biden and Trump, the State Department has imposed visa sanctions on over 2,000 Nicaraguan officials. Both major U.S. parties have proposed CAFTA sanctions, while Trump has imposed new tariffs but exempted CAFTA products.
In July, the House of Representatives sent a budget bill for national security allocating $15 million for Nicaragua to the Senate. If the bill becomes law, Rubio will have 90 days to hand in a report on support for a democratic transition in Nicaragua.
Gutiérrez said that Washington’s actions toward Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela are a narrative to assert control “in their backyard” ahead of the U.S. midterms.
Under Trump, unilateral U.S. actions have rankled allies. In an apparent tone reset, Rubio said in September that the U.S. “will implement measures at the next OAS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting” on Nicaragua.
In July, the OAS Permanent Council called a special session on Nicaragua. The U.S., Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, and Antigua and Barbuda’s proposed a consultation of foreign ministers, receiving 29 votes to approve. Only Mexico abstained and Brazil opposed.
This week, the U.S. coalition presented the final proposal, which sets the official date for the meeting as October 2.
The OAS rejected Ortega’s 2021 reelection. Nicaragua withdrew in 2023, the first to do so since the organization’s creation in 1948.
OAS President Albert Ramdin has called for “individual and collective decisions to impose sanctions and exert more pressure on Nicaragua.”
But Dominican Ambassador Josué Fiallo, former president of the OAS Permanent Council, called the proposed summit “a public relations ploy by the United States to show that it is doing something.”
Fiallo told El Faro English that most of the votes in favor were coerced by the United States, highlighting the lack of a coherent strategy.
“The U.S. may be betting on reviving multilateral support for a pressure campaign to bring down the dictatorship,” argued Gutiérrez.
An “orderly transition”
In August, 15 opposition groups in exile presented a proposal for a 24-month “orderly transition” establishing a temporary council, a constituent assembly, and free elections. Chamorro calls it a roadmap for the “day after” the regime, with “basic changes needed to lay the foundations of democracy.”
“All options are on the table,” said Chamorro, while acknowledging the different U.S. tacks toward Nicaragua and Venezuela. “Any solution aimed at ending this dictatorship must be considered within the framework of a democratic transition.”
Echoing past divisions, other opposition groups like the Articulation of Social Movements of Nicaragua rejected the plan. “Any proposal that, without a shred of shame or historical memory, calls for military action against Nicaragua —whether unilateral or multinational— is indefensible,” they wrote.
Téllez was skeptical of a U.S.-led strategy. “The dictatorship in Nicaragua is a problem for Nicaraguans,” she said. “A strong position from the American continent can sit them down for a dialogue to open a transition to democracy.”
“The challenge is to build an opposition force that is strong, coherent, and diverse enough to inspire hope in Nicaragua,” said Gutiérrez.
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In contrast, Manuel Orozco, director for Migration, Remittances, and Development at the Inter-American Dialogue, said it’s hard to define who is the Nicaraguan opposition “in a country where the party system has been eliminated.”
“The task for them is to redefine themselves as a coordinated civic movement, with an agenda of political resistance in Nicaragua that is willing to contribute more to the Latin American community,” Orozco said.
With Nicaraguan dissidents spread out in exile, U.S. domestic politics muddle support for their cause. Gone are the days of Operation “Nica Welcome.” Now, more than a half-dozen former political prisoners and dissidents risk deportation.
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