The Only Clear Winner of the Honduran Elections Is Donald Trump

Honduras is still counting votes in a disputed election. President Xiomara Castro’s party, Libre, has called for the election to be annulled before the National Electoral Council can finish the official tally. But for Donald Trump’s Washington, the outcome is already irrelevant. Dyed-in-the-wool conservative Nasry “Tito” Asfura and the former sportscaster turned MAGA sycophant Salvador Nasralla are locked in a “technical tie,” with a wide lead over Castro’s candidate, the former Defense and Finance Minister Rixi Moncada. But whichever of the two frontrunners comes out on top, Trump has secured a compliant partner.

Trump has not been subtle. Days before Hondurans cast their ballots, the president of the United states nakedly endorsed Asfura in a series of social-media posts that went so far as to announce a pardon for former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, convicted last year in New York on drug trafficking charges. He called Nasralla —a two-year vice president under the purported leftist Xiomara Castro— a “borderline communist,” reviving a Cold War slur for a new era. In Trump’s world, ideology is performative; loyalty is transactional.

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What Washington is engineering in Honduras is a throwback with a modern twist: anti-communism fused with raw pragmatism. Rubio’s obsession with leftist influence and China meets Stephen Miller’s fixation on immigration and law enforcement. Together, they have drafted a blueprint for U.S. influence that is as ruthless as it is retrograde.

If Asfura prevails, Honduras could become a lever against Daniel Ortega’s Nicaragua, which Rubio views as a geopolitical rival on par with Maduro’s Venezuela. In the 1980s, Honduras served as a base to fight the Sandinista revolution. Today, Ortega’s grip is tighter than ever, and Rubio’s Cold War-era thinking has transformed Nicaragua into a renewed target — also aiming to disrupt the growing ties between China and Castro’s government.

But for Trump, Honduras is less about ideology than opportunity. To Miller and his circle, a pliable Honduran government is a launchpad for deporting migrants from Venezuela, Cuba, and beyond. Nasralla has promised a rightward pivot, while the sleepy perennial candidate Asfura from the National Party, Trump’s old ally, appears to owe his improved lot to Trump’s meddling. Either way, Washington calls the shots.

Geography only amplifies Honduras’ value. Two coastlines and key drug routes make it a prize in the U.S. fight against narcotics — and a testing ground for naval “boat strikes” that critics warn violate international law. Meanwhile, El Salvador under Nayib Bukele has become a cautionary tale: after offering to jail American citizens at Trump’s request, Bukele faced criticism that weakened his standing within parts of the political establishment and may hasten the eventual repatriation of hundreds of Venezuelans who accuse his government of torture.

Honduras, by contrast, is poised to become a reliable ally in Trump’s anti-immigrant and anti-narcotics agenda. At the same time, Guatemala has granted access to the anti-gang Joint Task Force Vulcan — one which brought cases against Salvadoran MS-13 leaders, only to have the Trump administration sabotage their work at Bukele’s behest. Today’s heyday of righteous cooperation can set the stage for tomorrow’s cold, hard deal-cutting.

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Last week, the White House announced a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. The Honduran elections are a reminder that we are witnessing the reshaping of the Northern Triangle according to Trump and Rubio’s wishes. Will this bring back the cooperation and resources Washington once lavished on Central America as a reward for geopolitical loyalty? Perhaps, to some extent. But it will also embolden forces that erode democracy and accountability while playing footsie with the U.S. government. The last time Washington backed a conservative candidate in Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández won a reelection expressly prohibited by Honduras’ amid accusations of fraud and repression on the streets. This triggered a crisis that fueled mass migration to the United States.

The ballots are not yet counted, but the message is unmistakable: For Trump, Honduras is less an election underway than a prize already won.

Ricardo Valencia is an associate professor of communications at California State University, Fullerton. Find him on X: @ricardovalp

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