Rodrigo Chaves Stirs Up Costa Rican Election without Being on the Ballot

El Faro English translates Central America. Subscribe to our newsletter.

In the lead-up to the February 1 election in Costa Rica, the presidential campaign is already facing a major stress test: a sitting president celebrating a “battle won” while facing unresolved legal cases; a ruling-party candidate who capitalizes on that narrative; a foreign president weighing in like a home-team player; and an electoral tribunal calling for the president’s immunity to be lifted over political meddling.

“Yesterday we won an important battle, but the war isn’t over. They’ll keep attacking me, but people of Costa Rica, you have a faithful servant in me,” President Rodrigo Chaves declared two weeks ago, after lawmakers failed to reach the 38 votes needed —they obtained 34 of 57— to lift his immunity. The case, unprecedented in scope for a sitting president, stalled in the Assembly but didn’t go away: It can be reopened once Chaves leaves office on May 8.

Prosecutors allege Chaves pressured a contractor to hand over about $30,000 from a video production financed with non-refundable funds from the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) to one of his trusted advisers.

The president has spent political capital discrediting the investigation and attacking Attorney General Carlo Díaz. Political scientist Ilka Treminio put it bluntly: “What we see is the president and the presidential candidates in Congress playing a political game where politics subsumes the legal discussion,” she told El Faro English.

In other words, immunity became campaign ammunition. Chaves framed the criminal probe as persecution — part of his familiar script. “In the president’s narrative, even though we’re talking about a process to lift his immunity, he recasts it as political persecution to avoid giving in,” Treminio explained.

[rel2]

That framing —persecution versus institutions— set the tone for allied messaging. Candidate Laura Fernández of Pueblo Soberano party, Chaves’ political heir, quickly claimed victory from the failed vote: “Under the mistaken and cynical belief that they were weakening him and our campaign, the opposite happened. Both Don Rodrigo and our campaign come out stronger because Costa Rica has changed,” she said.

Fernández has positioned herself as the candidate of continuity. She even pledged to shield Chaves by appointing him to her cabinet, granting him renewed immunity. “If she wins, the candidate of chavismo said she’d name Rodrigo Chaves minister of the Presidency. That would extend his immunity for another four years, practically burying the case for five or six years,” explains La Nación reporter Aarón Sequeira.

The move could work politically: Chaves’ approval rating still tops 50 percent in recent polls, and some surveys even list him as the favorite for next February’s election — with Fernández trailing behind.

The Bukele card

The ruling camp’s strategy hasn’t unfolded alone. Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, entered the scene through a video that Chaves played during a press event — like inviting a global influencer to bless continuity.

“Hello, greetings, Costa Rican brothers. Greetings, President Chaves. If the next administration continues this government’s projects, I have no doubt that Costa Rica’s best days are ahead — a safer, more prosperous Costa Rica. A huge hug to everyone, and may God bless Costa Rica,” Bukele said in the clip.

It was a familiar sequence of events. On a previous visit, last November, Chaves awarded Bukele Costa Rica’s highest diplomatic honors and distributed aid packages with Salvadoran soldiers, without first getting the required permission from the legislature. The Costa Rican constitution, along with rulings from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) and Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court, explicitly prohibit foreign interference in political affairs, including campaigning or attempting to influence voters.

At that time, speculation swirled about Bukele’s family ties to businessman José Miguel Aguilar, husband of Bukele’s cousin Johanna Bukele. Aguilar was rumored to be Bukelismo’s proxy candidate in Costa Rica, but he has since launched his own movement, Avanza. Questions about the family’s influence in his project are still being posed.

[rel1]

Now, the nod from Bukele favors Chaves — and it worked. The conversation shifted from institutional to emotional terrain.

Fernández, Chaves’ candidate, has taken on Bukele’s aura in her messaging, reinforcing the promise of continuity and a “firm hand”. The ruling bloc is trying to turn doubts about presidential immunity into a referendum on governance: Do you want order and continuity à la Bukele —with Chaves guiding from the cabinet— or a return to the past?

Offensive against the press

In a country long defined by institutional balance, the question is no longer rhetorical: Can Costa Rica’s democracy withstand the normalization of foreign interference and the hyper-personalization of politics?

Chaves keeps rattling the system. This week, the president faced the latest in dozens of inquiries from prosecutors — Attorney General Díaz accused him of showing “improper interest” by trying to influence an investigation involving Leonel Baruch, a businessman and founder of CRHoy, a media outlet critical of his administration.

Baruch has faced repeated public attacks from Chaves and has responded with defamation lawsuits. The confrontation mirrors a broader pattern: Chaves’ presidency has escalated its attacks on oversight institutions, as several university studies show.

The Supreme Court has condemned the Chaves government for administrative harassment of the parent company of La Nación, repeated verbal attacks against the press, and restricting freedom of information. That makes it all the more pertinent that the corruption case that led to the legislative vote was revealed by La Nación two years ago.

The campaign, in that sense, accelerates these trends. By turning every disagreement into loyalty or betrayal, Costa Rican chavismo —a mix of aggressive rhetoric, personality cult, blame-shifting, and disdain for fact-checking— keeps stretching the limits of the system. As Treminio warns, “politics ends up swallowing the law.”

Referee blows the whistle

The week closed with a development that reframes everything: Costa Rica’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has filed a new request to lift Rodrigo Chaves’ immunity — this time for political partisanship.

[newsletter]

According to the TSE, a sitting president cannot interfere in the electoral process through campaign acts, foreign endorsements, or public pressure that taints the playing field. The complaints, filed by opposition leaders and citizens over recent months, accuse Chaves of using official events to comment on electoral issues and attack rival parties.

If the earlier case showed how a criminal file can become a symbolic weapon during a campaign, the TSE’s new action shifts the focus back to elections — to fair play. The outcome will again depend on the Legislative Assembly, and once more require 38 votes. With the campaign season now underway, the referee has chosen to call the foul.

This article first appeared in the October 9 dispatch of the El Faro English newsletter. Subscribe here.